Many years ago, I tried to convince Tom Clancy to write a book about a high-tech war between Japan and China. Unfortunately, Mitch seems to be the only guy with the guts to put them in their place. Someone needs to slap down on Russia hard. And that comes on the heels of their biggest dry dock sinking while they were working on their only aircraft carrier. A little over a month after the book was released, an icebreaker the Russians have been trying to get out to sea since 2012 burst into flames. In Red War, Mitch Rapp comments on this disconnect, mentioning the sad state of Russia’s Navy. Their budget is less than that of Saudi Arabia’s and about one tenth of what the US spends. It’s really impressive that Russia continues to convince everyone that they have a world-class military.
Fortunately for the world, the second part of my prediction didn’t materialize. A similar tactic was used in my book by the Russian president to prop up his support at home and to divert the West’s attention when he moved on the Baltics. Shortly after the release of Red War Russia started flexing its muscle again with Ukraine, blocking shipping lanes and seizing ships. By fall, a commercial satellite firm confirmed that there was work happening in four areas. This past summer, aerial images suggested that Russia was modernizing a nuclear weapons bunker there. It would be critical to an invasion of the Baltic States as it’s on the southern border. Most people don’t know it, but Russia has an enclave on the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania. How close was my story to what’s happening today? Kaliningrad In my scenario, he attacks NATO at the poorly defended borders of the Baltic States. And every time we blink, he gets a boost at home and knows he can push a little further. With an economy similar to that of Texas, he consistently succeeds at staring down the world’s superpowers. The Russian people admire strong leaders and Vladimir Putin is a prodigy at projecting that strength. I stuck pretty close to reality when creating a scenario for the book. I grew up on Cold War thrillers and with Russia reemerging on the world stage, it was time for Mitch Rapp to turn his attention toward America’s age-old nemesis. As always, there were days that the newspapers felt like the ultimate thriller novel. The past year didn’t disappoint as technology moved forward and some shady world leaders returned to their old tricks. It’s a new year and that means I’ve been at my desk poring over 2018’s events to see how well I did at anticipating-and maybe even predicting-the things playing out in the news.
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